CCMC CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2026-02-13T09:38:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2026-02-13T09:38ZDONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/44627/-1
CME Note: CME visible to the NW in GOES CCOR-1 and the NE in STEREO A COR2. The CME is not visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 in real time due to a downlink gap. The source is an M1.0 flare starting at 2026-02-13T08:28Z from AR 14373 (N10W15) as best seen in SDO AIA 131. Dimming and post eruptive arcades are also best seen in SDO AIA 193. The eruption is also visible in the NE quadrant of the disk from the point of view of STEREO A EUV imagery. No arrival signature is seen in the solar wind at L1.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-02-16T01:22Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.5%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.5
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:
This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CMELead Time: 47.02 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2026-02-14T02:21Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Policy